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Markets await key inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets await key inflation dataMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Carol Schleif, BMO Family Office CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the inflation report could impact the Fed & the market.
Persons: Michelle Girard, Carol Schleif Organizations: NatWest Markets, BMO Family
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGirard: The Fed may take a more neutral stance today, a step toward deciding when to cut ratesMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, says the question for the Fed is whether they need keep rates as high as they are now, or begin to take their foot off the pedal.
Persons: Michelle Girard Organizations: Girard, NatWest Markets
Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.
Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors positioning for sharp interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may be disappointed, according to BlackRock. Increased geopolitical risks will also fuel price pressures in the coming years, according to BlackRock, reducing room for the Fed to ease monetary policy. "We think the Fed may not be able to deliver the rate cuts markets expect, even with growth moderating," analysts led by Jean Boivin wrote. "We think that means inflation is set to rollercoaster back up near 3% in 2025 as the goods price drag fades.
Persons: , Jean Boivin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Investors, UBS, Fed, NatWest Locations: BlackRock
Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, in London, Britain September 27, 2018. The LME is the world's largest and oldest forum for metals. Its three-year-long flagship project to overhaul its electronic trading system faces up to a year of further delays and mounting costs, four people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters in October. From Jan. 15, Baldwin will join the LME, succeeding Mario Quonils who has decided to relocate back to Germany, the LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK), said in a statement. "Alistair's knowledge and expertise in running in-house technology platforms will prove invaluable in this regard," he added.
Persons: Simon Dawson, Alistair Baldwin, Baldwin, Mario Quonils, Alistair, Richard Leung, Polina Devitt, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, Companies Hong Kong Exchanges, NatWest Markets, Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, HKEX Group, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Germany
Asia shares extend rally on hopes of early rate cuts
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"This year's better-than-expected U.S. supply-side performance raises hopes for a soft landing," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Futures markets swung to imply a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. An odd man out is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume hiking rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation stays stubbornly high. "We look for the Fed Funds rate to fall to 3-3.25%, the ECB depo rate to 3% and BoE Bank Rate to 4.25% by end-2024."
Persons: Issei Kato, Bruce Kasman, disinflation, Jerome Powell, BoE, Brent, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Futures, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, The Bank of Japan, South, Nasdaq, Fed, NatWest Markets, Sunday, Palestinian, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, U.S, Bank of England, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
Asia stocks mull over Middle East, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald's, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures had edged up 0.3% to 4,151, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday. The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether. Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.
Persons: Issei Kato, BoE, BOJ, Eli Lilly, China Evergrande, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, reacceleration, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Apple, Moderna, Nasdaq, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Treasury, NatWest, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Capital, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Gaza, payrolls SYDNEY, United States, Britain, McDonald's, Gaza's, Iranian, Asia, Pacific, China, Israel, East
Oct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Most talk is it will stay on hold this time, but will discuss laying the groundwork for an eventual shift. Any tweak would see Japanese yields rise and add to the pain being felt in the Treasury market, where 10-year yields nudged up to 4.87% on Monday with scant sign of any safe haven bid. Analysts at NatWest Markets expect $885 billion of marketable borrowing in Q4 and $700 billion in Q1. It is also notable that the borrowing kept climbing even though the economy surprised everyone with its strength.
Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Eli Lilly, Luis de Guindos, Erik Thedéen, Muralikumar Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Ichi, Insurance, Reuters, Treasury, NatWest Markets, Federal Reserve, Apple, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Gaza, China
The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September resulted in five members voting to pause, just outnumbering the four who sought another increase. So far, investors are not challenging the BoE's message that interest rates will stay high for a considerable period. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill likened the outlook for monetary policy to the lofty, flat and long profile of Table Mountain during a visit to South Africa in late August. But economists expected little change in the BoE's previous forecasts that inflation will fall to 2% in two years' time. "Recent geopolitical events will probably induce a modicum of monetary policy caution, reinforcing the likelihood of unaltered policy settings," analysts at NatWest Markets said.
Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, James Smith, Smith, BOE, Huw Pill, Pill, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Price, William Schomberg, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Investors, U.S . Federal, Monetary Fund, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, South Africa
NatWest cuts forecast peak for BoE rates to 5.5% from 6%
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
Signage at a branch of NatWest Bank pictured in central London, May 21, 2008. REUTERS/Luke MacGregor/File PhotoLONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - NatWest Markets cut its forecast for the peak in Bank of England interest rates to 5.5% after the BoE's announcement of a latest rate hike and new guidance on Thursday, down from 6% it previously forecast. "We are revising our Bank Rate forecast and now look for just one more 25bp hike to 5.5% in September," NatWest Markets' chief UK economist, Ross Walker, wrote in a note to clients. "The apparent rowing-back in the MPC's policy-tightening guidance leaves us comfortable maintaining our negative bias on sterling," NatWest added. Reporting by David Milliken Editing by William SchombergOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Luke MacGregor, Ross Walker, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: NatWest Bank, REUTERS, NatWest, Bank of, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: London, Bank, Bank of England
Asia shares brace for trio of rate meetings, China steps
  + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China's Politburo meeting this week could see more stimulus announced, though investors have so far been underwhelmed by Beijing's actions. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were little changed ahead of a wave of earnings this week. The U.S. dollar eased a touch to 141.37 yen , having jumped 1.3% on Friday following the report on the BOJ. The rise in the dollar pulled gold back to $1,961 an ounce and away from last week's peak of $1,987. Oil prices ran into profit-taking early on Monday having climbed for four straight weeks amid tightening supplies.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Powell, John Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Nikkei, Fed, ECB, SYDNEY, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, NatWest Markets, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Japan's Nikkei, HK, Nasdaq, Intel, Microsoft, GE, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Coca Cola, Ford, Google, U.S, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Coca, Spain
Asia stocks split as US-China outlooks diverge
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.7% to hit a three-month high, with results propelling bank shares. Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N) shares rose sharply on strong results and an upbeat outlook overnight. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose 4% - adding $100 billion in market value - after announcing charges for artificial intelligence features in its office software. British inflation data due at 0600 GMT is the next major calendar item and traders are expecting a fall to a still-uncomfortable 8.2% annual pace. "While annual headline inflation fell sharply, which is helpful for inflation expectations, the details suggest persistence in non-tradables inflation."
Persons: Seng, SYDNEY, Dovish, Tapas Strickland, Morgan Stanley, Klaas Knot, Brian Daingerfield, Treasuries, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Companies, Microsoft, U.S, European Central Bank, New Zealand, Japan's Nikkei, Headline U.S, National Australia Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, NatWest Markets, Bank of, Fed, ECB, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, South Korea, Sydney, Atlanta, U.S, Europe, New York, New Zealand, Bank of England
Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. The current debate is whether more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues or if doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for May. But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. A slight majority of economists who answered an additional question, 14 of 23, said wage inflation would be the most sticky component of core inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jan Nevruzi, Doug Porter, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, NatWest Markets, PCE, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S
Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. "Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan's yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13. "The FX market is taking more of a 'one-dimensional approach' to trading the British disease," said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets. The Chinese yuan last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market , a day after falling about 0.4%.
Persons: payrolls, Brian Daingerfield, Lorie Logan, Brad Bechtel, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, Bitcoin, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, David Holmes, Mark Potter, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, NatWest Markets, Fed, Dallas, FX, Jefferies, of England, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, London, Singapore
The yen weakened 0.09% to 144.45 to start the second half of the year, having lost 9% against the dollar in the first six months of the year. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.66, just under the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94. Markets are pricing in a 84% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points in its July meeting, CME FedWatch tool showed. The Australian dollar rose 0.02% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.42% at $0.615.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Marc Chandler, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill Organizations: Finance, Japan, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, NatWest, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Bannockburn, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, Singapore
SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Asian shares made a tentative start to Thursday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stuck to his recent hawkish tone as investors assess the future rate policy path from the Fed. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday the Fed should not raise rates further or it would risk "needlessly" sapping the strength of the U.S. economy. The comments highlight the growing debate at the central bank over when and if the central bank should hike further. "The BoE's conditional guidance put the burden of proof on the data showing more persistent inflation pressures to continue hiking bank rate. Markets will also be awaiting policy decision from Turkey's central bank, with a policy pivot and a sharp rate increase widely expected.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Australia's, Powell, Kevin Cummins, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Taylor Nugent, Sterling, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Washington, Atlanta, U.S, Turkey's
The BOJ rounded up a central bank heavy week, keeping its pledge to "patiently" sustain massive stimulus to ensure Japan sustainably achieves its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage hikes. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Markets are now pricing in 67% chance of the U.S. central bank raising its interest rate by 25 basis points next month, according to CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank on Thursday left the door open to more rate hikes as it flagged risks from rising wages and revised up its inflation projections. The ECB also raised interest rates by 25 bps taking its policy rate to 3.5%, a level not seen since 2001.
Persons: DAX, Kazuo Ueda's, Charu, HSI, Ryan Brandham, Lagarde, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, Ueda, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Validus Risk Management, European Central Bank, ECB, NatWest Markets, China . U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, North America, U.S, China . U.S
And even if the Fed does pause, Ferguson says it doesn't mean that more rate hikes aren't coming over the rest of the year. He isn't alone in the view that a Fed pause won't last long. This view is underpinned by, among other things, a labor market that continues to be tight. Others see recent cooling the labor market as a signal the Fed may soon have more need to moderate its rate hike strategy. "The broad picture here is the labor market is cooling in a sustainable way.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Roger Ferguson, That's, Ferguson, CNBC's, isn't, Michelle Girard, Steve Liesman, Dennis Lockhart, Lockhart, Fed's, Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, — Ferguson, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell's, Rucha Vankudre, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon —, Solomon, Goldman, Frederic Mishkin, it's, Mishkin, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Bank of America, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Fed, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Conference Board, Labor, Lightcast, Former Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S
Dollar falls after weak services data
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday on news that the U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, ending an initial rally sparked by strong jobs growth. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The dollar index fell to 104.00, down 0.13% on the day, after climbing as high as 104.40. The Aussie dollar edged higher before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. "We expect the RBA to hike tomorrow and guide for more, leading to a ~25-bp upgrade to terminal rate pricing and a sharp AUD rally."
Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Daingerfield, Philip Jefferson, Daingerfield, Wells, Erik Nelson, Jack Boswell, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Comerica Bank, Reserve, NatWest Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Stamford , Connecticut, U.S, London
Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.
Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS
The guarded optimism is set to extend to Europe when markets open, with pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. "However, with China's data throwing up a few concerns of late - we've seen poor import, PPI, and loan data - China's growth is very much at the heart of market moves," said Weston. U.S. crude futures fell 0.6% to $69.61 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.68 per barrel.
SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGirard: There's no longer any need for further rate hikes by the FedMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hiking campaign.
Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.
Kacper Pempel | ReutersCalls to move away from relying on the U.S. dollar for trade are growing. The U.S. dollar accounted for 58.36% of global foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter last year, according to data from the IMF's Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). China is one of the most active players in this push given its dominant position in global trade right now, and as the world's second largest economy. The IMF estimates that Asia could contribute more than 70% to global growth this year. In the Middle East, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia has reportedly signaled it's open to trade in other currencies other than the greenback.
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